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7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $42K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$42.4K
$7.9K
78.2¢ → 96¢
+23% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nadmi | Noavg 57.2¢ | $7.7K | $13.0K | +$5.3K | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 TeemuPukki | Noavg 88.7¢ | $12.4K | $12.3K | +$1.0K | 63% 676-395 (1071) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 92.2¢ | $8.0K | $8.4K | +$309.45 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 80.4¢ | $6.5K | $7.8K | +$1.2K | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 bigshort | Noavg 90¢ | $450 | $482 | +$31.75 | 83% 357-71 (428) |
 LinaBell | Noavg 90.2¢ | $297.82 | $318.31 | +$20.49 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
 4751346 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $179 | $192.8 | +$13.7 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
NadmiInvested
$7,698.25
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$5.3K
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
TeemuPukkiInvested
$12,445.88
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
63%
676-395 (1071)
Invested
$7,999.74
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$309.45
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$6,517.95
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
bigshortInvested
$450
Value
$482
PnL
+$31.75
Record
83%
357-71 (428)
LinaBellInvested
$297.82
Value
$318.31
PnL
+$20.49
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
4751346Invested
$179
Value
$192.8
PnL
+$13.7
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.