Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 96¢ · $32K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$32.4K
$2.3K
89.6¢ → 96.2¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
4178h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $12.0K | $12.7K | +$724.32 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 91.9¢ | $6.1K | $6.2K | +$173.04 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 TeemuPukki | Noavg 88.7¢ | $5.4K | $5.8K | +$451.68 | 63% 676-395 (1071) |
 bigshort | Noavg 84.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.7K | +$440.62 | 83% 357-71 (428) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 87.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$259.29 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 93.2¢ | $465.82 | $479.5 | +$14.68 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 archaic | Noavg 92.1¢ | $326.99 | $328.24 | +$1.25 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $57.34 | $254.43 | +$197.1 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$12,012.99
Value
$12.7K
PnL
+$724.32
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$6,070.1
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$173.04
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
TeemuPukkiInvested
$5,364.7
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$451.68
Record
63%
676-395 (1071)
bigshortInvested
$3,228.25
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$440.62
Record
83%
357-71 (428)
Donny.TInvested
$2,641.94
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$259.29
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$465.82
Value
$479.5
PnL
+$14.68
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
archaicInvested
$326.99
Value
$328.24
PnL
+$1.25
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
NadmiCTRInvested
$57.34
Value
$254.43
PnL
+$197.1
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.