Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (38%) · Pelicans at 52¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

Grizzlies49¢Pelicans51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$59.87

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies49%

Pelicans52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares17,453

Combined PnL+$82.19

Grizzlies8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares11,104

Combined PnL-$22.32

Pelicans — 38%Grizzlies — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pelicansavg 51.3¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$100.85	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
TO tomb2456	Pelicansavg 52.6¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$7.65	49% 305-313 (618)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.11	62% 4298-2635 (6933)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13	73% 3621-1337 (4958)
EA easymoneysniperzz	Pelicansavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	43% 417-545 (962)
ComingBackCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$719.12	$726.61	+$7.49	61% 3998-2513 (6511)
SE sentrioCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$514.97	$512.45	-$2.52	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$510	$475	-$35	53% 1051-933 (1984)
VeryLucky888CTR	Grizzliesavg 47.5¢	$475	$475	+$0	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
DV dv-pmCTR	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$339.9	$313.75	+$3.27	49% 3238-3323 (6561)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$219.49	$221.82	+$2.33	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 50.3¢	$143.83	$144.63	+$0.8	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50.3¢	$75.23	$72.53	-$2.7
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 49¢	$68.6	$72.1	+$3.5
RN1	Pelicansavg 52¢	$130	$128.75	-$1.25	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
HE Herdonia<$100	Pelicansavg 51.4¢	$98.08	$98.32	+$0.24	54% 3479-3014 (6493)

HomeRunHazard

Pelicans

Invested

$4,352.43

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$100.85

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

tomb2456

Pelicans

Invested

$3,435.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$7.65

Record

49%

305-313 (618)

SunlineTickerCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,419.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.11

Record

62%

4298-2635 (6933)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,248

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13

Record

73%

3621-1337 (4958)

easymoneysniperzz

Pelicans

Invested

$1,039.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

43%

417-545 (962)

ComingBackCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$719.12

Value

$726.61

PnL

+$7.49

Record

61%

3998-2513 (6511)

sentrioCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$514.97

Value

$512.45

PnL

-$2.52

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$510

Value

$475

PnL

-$35

Record

53%

1051-933 (1984)

VeryLucky888CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$475

Value

$475

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

dv-pmCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$339.9

Value

$313.75

PnL

+$3.27

Record

49%

3238-3323 (6561)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$219.49

Value

$221.82

PnL

+$2.33

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$143.83

Value

$144.63

PnL

+$0.8

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$75.2350.3¢-$2.7

Pelicans$68.649¢+$3.5

RN1

Pelicans

Invested

$130

Value

$128.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

Herdonia<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$98.08

Value

$98.32

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.