Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Bulls (55%). 15 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-11.5)

15 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (65%) · 76ers at 46¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 3

76ers46¢Bulls54¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.7K

Combined PnL

-$530.53

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 45.5¢

-4% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

15 of 23 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers46%

Bulls55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers15 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares54,416

Combined PnL-$829.34

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares39,506

Combined PnL+$298.81

76ers — 65%Bulls — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 47.8¢	$10.0K	$9.5K	-$480.9	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
CH chongchong37	Bullsavg 54¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$75	53% 125-112 (237)
AP AppleTiiime	Bullsavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$150	— 7-6 (13)
Greedo	Bullsavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$50.05	48% 185-200 (385)
FO forecastication4CTR	76ersavg 46.5¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$105.19	50% 1244-1261 (2505)
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$53.09	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	76ersavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$49.64	47% 2623-2923 (5546)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	76ersavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.59	62% 4298-2635 (6933)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 48.6¢	$967.48	$847.5	-$22.22	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48.6¢	$595.6	$557.76	-$37.84
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51.7¢	$274.72	$289.74	+$15.62
SE sentrioCTR	76ersavg 47.8¢	$858.45	$829.13	-$29.32	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
DO DolphinBaller	Bullsavg 51¢	$765	$765	+$0	47% 107-123 (230)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 47.8¢	$792.57	$754.39	-$38.18	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
HE HerdoniaCTR	76ersavg 48.6¢	$598.53	$560.25	-$38.28	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
FY FYYY0689	Bullsavg 53¢	$549.32	$544.14	-$5.18	49% 28-29 (57)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Bullsavg 52¢	$520	$515	-$5	53% 1051-933 (1984)
HI hi774c	Bullsavg 48¢	$456	$475	+$33.25	51% 4856-4597 (9453)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	76ersavg 50¢	$250	$245	-$5	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
FE ferdinand2CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$134.14	$132.68	-$1.46	51% 1005-965 (1970)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	76ersavg 49.7¢	$138.59	$126.95	-$11.64	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
RN1CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$115	$113.75	-$1.25	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	76ersavg 49¢	$36.75	$36.38	-$0.38	49% 3238-3323 (6561)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	76ersavg 49.4¢	$50.83	$27.46	-$3.3	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
0xheavy888<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$9.6	$10	+$0.7	56% 7468-5986 (13454)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	76ersavg 46.8¢	$4.79	$4.66	-$0.13	45% 12937-15707 (28644)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$9,999.92

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$480.9

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

chongchong37

Bulls

Invested

$8,100

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$75

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

AppleTiiime

Bulls

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Greedo

Bulls

Invested

$5,099.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$50.05

Record

48%

185-200 (385)

forecastication4CTR

76ers

Invested

$4,717.89

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$105.19

Record

50%

1244-1261 (2505)

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$4,647.68

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$53.09

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

76ers

Invested

$2,482.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$49.64

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

SunlineTickerCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,135.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.59

Record

62%

4298-2635 (6933)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$967.48

Value

$847.5

PnL

-$22.22

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

76ers$595.648.6¢-$37.84

Bulls$274.7251.7¢+$15.62

sentrioCTR

76ers

Invested

$858.45

Value

$829.13

PnL

-$29.32

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

DolphinBaller

Bulls

Invested

$765

Value

$765

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

107-123 (230)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$792.57

Value

$754.39

PnL

-$38.18

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

HerdoniaCTR

76ers

Invested

$598.53

Value

$560.25

PnL

-$38.28

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

FYYY0689

Bulls

Invested

$549.32

Value

$544.14

PnL

-$5.18

Record

49%

28-29 (57)

TheComboConnoisseur

Bulls

Invested

$520

Value

$515

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1051-933 (1984)

hi774c

Bulls

Invested

$456

Value

$475

PnL

+$33.25

Record

51%

4856-4597 (9453)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

76ers

Invested

$250

Value

$245

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

ferdinand2CTR

76ers

Invested

$134.14

Value

$132.68

PnL

-$1.46

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

UpTheBluesCTR

76ers

Invested

$138.59

Value

$126.95

PnL

-$11.64

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$115

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

dv-pmCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$36.75

Value

$36.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

3238-3323 (6561)

ghorrockCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$50.83

Value

$27.46

PnL

-$3.3

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

0xheavy888<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

7468-5986 (13454)

suntoriCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.13

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

15 of 23 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.