Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 56¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 3

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$291.51

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 56.5¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 14 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares17,453

Combined PnL+$791.25

Over12 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,358

Combined PnL-$499.74

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Underavg 51.9¢	$8.5K	$9.3K	+$751.25	50% 495-491 (986)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$143.08	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$224.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$81.78
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$180	47% 2622-2923 (5545)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$137.48	51% 4853-4596 (9449)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 48¢	$631.32	$572.13	-$59.19	58% 48519-34669 (83188)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 51¢	$510	$550	+$40	53% 1050-931 (1981)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$469.4	$436.43	-$32.97	50% 25008-24730 (49738)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$267.02	$243.09	-$23.93	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 49¢	$245	$225	-$20	53% 5751-5086 (10837)
fyrskenCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$217.5	-$7.5	48% 301-322 (623)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$359.98	$110.91	-$26.32	58% 43613-31723 (75336)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$98.88	$89.61	-$9.27	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$22.91	$21.2	-$1.71	57% 17252-12909 (30161)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.4	$8.7	-$0.7	55% 7465-5986 (13451)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$7.2	$6.53	-$0.67	51% 6571-6215 (12786)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Under

Invested

$8,544.7

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$751.25

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,582.42

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$143.08

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

Both legs:

Over$2,399.4348¢-$224.86

Under$1,182.9952.8¢+$81.78

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,920

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$180

Record

47%

2622-2923 (5545)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,466.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$137.48

Record

51%

4853-4596 (9449)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$631.32

Value

$572.13

PnL

-$59.19

Record

58%

48519-34669 (83188)

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$510

Value

$550

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

1050-931 (1981)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$469.4

Value

$436.43

PnL

-$32.97

Record

50%

25008-24730 (49738)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$267.02

Value

$243.09

PnL

-$23.93

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$225

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5751-5086 (10837)

fyrskenCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

48%

301-322 (623)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$359.98

Value

$110.91

PnL

-$26.32

Record

58%

43613-31723 (75336)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.88

Value

$89.61

PnL

-$9.27

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.91

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$1.71

Record

57%

17252-12909 (30161)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

55%

7465-5986 (13451)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$0.67

Record

51%

6571-6215 (12786)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 14 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.