Will FC Penafiel win on 2026-11-02?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$14.78

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,306

Combined PnL+$28.48

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,870

Combined PnL-$13.7

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$30.69	50% 495-491 (986)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15.38	58% 48519-34669 (83188)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 52¢	$662.71	$656.34	+$6.37	50% 2583-2581 (5164)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 52¢	$520	$515	-$5	47% 2622-2923 (5545)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.5¢	$262.84	$306.65	-$1.76	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$240	$242.5	+$2.5	53% 1050-931 (1981)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$49.97	$45.25	-$4.71	45% 12923-15690 (28613)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 47¢	$40.43	$41.51	+$1.08	46% 9227-10938 (20165)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$34.62	$20	+$0.38	58% 43613-31723 (75336)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.36	$10.04	+$0.68	50% 243-246 (489)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 52¢	$8.32	$8.24	-$0.08	53% 6373-5762 (12135)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,739.39

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$30.69

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,580.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15.38

Record

58%

48519-34669 (83188)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$662.71

Value

$656.34

PnL

+$6.37

Record

50%

2583-2581 (5164)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$520

Value

$515

PnL

-$5

Record

47%

2622-2923 (5545)

Flaznorp

Invested

$262.84

Value

$306.65

PnL

-$1.76

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR

Yes

Invested

$240

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1050-931 (1981)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.97

Value

$45.25

PnL

-$4.71

Record

45%

12923-15690 (28613)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$40.43

Value

$41.51

PnL

+$1.08

Record

46%

9227-10938 (20165)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$34.62

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

43613-31723 (75336)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

243-246 (489)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

6373-5762 (12135)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.