Consensus PnL $248K · win rate 51% (357–338, n=695) · was PM monthly #865 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$248.0K
Record
357W / 338L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 695 settled
Batting Avg
35.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1692
Source
PM monthly #865
Trades
599
Markets
919
Volume
$7.2M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 5 on the consensus side (20%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $22K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $5.4K · now 20¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $91 · now 20¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?No $44 · now 22¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $18 · now 20¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
779 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+4 pts
side won 57% of 194 · avg entry 53¢
ROI −3%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 57% of 141 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +9%
- College Basketball
+3 pts
side won 52% of 103 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 35% of 117 at an average 48¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 20% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 49% of 311)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 52% of 307)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 76% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.