Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 79¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 78.5¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares20,114

Combined PnL+$1.5K

No2 traders

Total Value$430.1

Total Shares1,955

Combined PnL-$15.33

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Yesavg 65.5¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$710.82	69% 804-359 (1163)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 75.5¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$154.77	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
twinna	Yesavg 69¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$297.5	50% 92-93 (185)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 78¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.27	58% 705-521 (1226)
PI pieped	Yesavg 76.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$22.92	42% 71-100 (171)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 23.2¢	$408.55	$386.1	-$11.33	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
FrozenParasite	Yesavg 38¢	$566.97	$328.22	+$266.48	55% 463-373 (836)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 78¢	$121.68	$120.12	-$0.78	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
11 11122<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$62	$77	+$15.5	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
TheOneto3CTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$49	$44	-$4	50% 464-457 (921)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 74.1¢	$12.35	$12.84	+$0.48	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$3,875.58

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$710.82

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$3,945.33

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$154.77

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$2,415

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$297.5

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$1,886.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$12.27

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$1,802.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$22.92

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$408.55

Value

$386.1

PnL

-$11.33

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$566.97

Value

$328.22

PnL

+$266.48

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$121.68

Value

$120.12

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

11122<$100

Yes

Invested

$62

Value

$77

PnL

+$15.5

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

TheOneto3CTR<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$44

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

464-457 (921)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$12.84

PnL

+$0.48

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.