Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?

4 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (19%) · Yes at 45¢ · $435K held · ends Nov 2

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 19%

Total Value

$434.6K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$235.2K

Total Shares522,725

Combined PnL+$4.4K

No17 traders

Total Value$199.4K

Total Shares358,006

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$219.6K	$223.6K	+$4.0K	58% 14-10 (24)
ND ndb1	Noavg 56¢	$112.0K	$111.0K	$-1.0K	66% 879-452 (1331)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 56.1¢	$21.9K	$21.7K	-$201.54	49% 13477-14173 (27650)
CA Cannae	Noavg 56¢	$16.5K	$16.3K	-$159.7	53% 16253-14437 (30690)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 56.1¢	$13.5K	$13.3K	-$154.58	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
FR fraagenCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$10.8K	$11.3K	+$375.02	44% 63-80 (143)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 55¢	$8.3K	$8.3K	+$0	50% 1243-1259 (2502)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 55.2¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$71.83	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
SU suntori	Noavg 56¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$41.05	44% 6422-8027 (14449)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.8¢	$5.9K	$4.4K	-$73.43	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$20.86	50% 26425-26254 (52679)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 55¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$24.44	47% 2620-2921 (5541)
binkybarnes55	Noavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	53% 584-521 (1105)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$45	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
SE sentrio	Noavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0.14	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 55.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10.31	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
leflaiveCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$265.95	$265.95	+$0	43% 1118-1509 (2627)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 56.5¢	$182.13	$177.35	-$4.78	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$88.08	$86.9	-$0.39	53% 3131-2736 (5867)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$57.62	$59.63	+$2.01	46% 7287-8587 (15874)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 57¢	$26.51	$25.58	-$0.93	48% 7155-7605 (14760)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$219,608.37

Value

$223.6K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

ndb1

Invested

$112,000

Value

$111.0K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

66%

879-452 (1331)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$21,909.17

Value

$21.7K

PnL

-$201.54

Record

49%

13477-14173 (27650)

Cannae

Invested

$16,452.07

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$159.7

Record

53%

16253-14437 (30690)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$13,466.22

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$154.58

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

fraagenCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,750

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$375.02

Record

44%

63-80 (143)

forecastication4

Invested

$8,250

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1243-1259 (2502)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,776.68

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$71.83

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

suntori

Invested

$4,598.73

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$41.05

Record

44%

6422-8027 (14449)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$5,875.98

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$73.43

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,293.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$20.86

Record

50%

26425-26254 (52679)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$2,688.61

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$24.44

Record

47%

2620-2921 (5541)

binkybarnes55

Invested

$2,182.4

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

584-521 (1105)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$45

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

sentrio

Invested

$1,630.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,275.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.31

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

leflaiveCTR

Yes

Invested

$265.95

Value

$265.95

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

1118-1509 (2627)

ghorrock

Invested

$182.13

Value

$177.35

PnL

-$4.78

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Invested

$88.08

Value

$86.9

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

3131-2736 (5867)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.62

Value

$59.63

PnL

+$2.01

Record

46%

7287-8587 (15874)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

7155-7605 (14760)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.