Kings vs. Mavericks

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (60%) · Mavericks at 79¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Kings22¢Mavericks78¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

-$287.66

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 78.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kings22%

Mavericks79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares18,991

Combined PnL-$287.86

Kings4 traders

Total Value$273.38

Total Shares1,302

Combined PnL+$0.2

Mavericks — 60%Kings — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007	Mavericksavg 80.1¢	$12.6K	$12.5K	-$254.71	— 13-1 (14)
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 79¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$10	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
nigiri99	Mavericksavg 79¢	$507.27	$503.97	-$3.3	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
NI niceqqqqq3	Mavericksavg 82¢	$410	$395	-$17.5	43% 37-50 (87)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Kingsavg 19.5¢	$248.22	$267.67	+$19.45	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 19.5¢	$188.02	$207.3	+$19.24
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 78.2¢	$60.15	$60.37	+$0.21
HE HerdoniaCTR	Kingsavg 21¢	$221.93	$221.93	-$0	54% 3475-3013 (6488)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Mavericksavg 79¢	$204.7	$204.7	+$0.2	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 79¢	$155.17	$155.17	-$0.98
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 21¢	$49.52	$49.52	+$1.18
funnydayCTR<$100	Kingsavg 21¢	$42	$42	+$0	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Mavericksavg 82¢	$29.73	$28.46	-$1.27	53% 8070-7281 (15351)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Mavericksavg 83¢	$20.08	$19.11	-$1.09	54% 484-419 (903)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 21¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0.2	50% 7247-7345 (14592)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.05	+$0	52% 7635-6911 (14546)

Libratus007

Mavericks

Invested

$12,649.08

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$254.71

Record

—

13-1 (14)

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$1,727.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$10

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

nigiri99

Mavericks

Invested

$507.27

Value

$503.97

PnL

-$3.3

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

niceqqqqq3

Mavericks

Invested

$410

Value

$395

PnL

-$17.5

Record

43%

37-50 (87)

OddstormARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$248.22

Value

$267.67

PnL

+$19.45

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

Both legs:

Kings$188.0219.5¢+$19.24

Mavericks$60.1578.2¢+$0.21

HerdoniaCTR

Kings

Invested

$221.93

Value

$221.93

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

3475-3013 (6488)

sentrioARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$204.7

Value

$204.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

Both legs:

Mavericks$155.1779¢-$0.98

Kings$49.5221¢+$1.18

funnydayCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

iWasEnough<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$29.73

Value

$28.46

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$20.08

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$1.09

Record

54%

484-419 (903)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

7247-7345 (14592)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7635-6911 (14546)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.