Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (43%) · Hawks at 61¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 3

Hawks61¢Pacers39¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.0K

Combined PnL

$510.01

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 60.5¢

+15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 21 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks61%

Pacers40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks9 traders

Total Value$23.9K

Total Shares38,874

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Pacers12 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares29,950

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Hawks — 43%Pacers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

32% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrPacers 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 68% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Hawksavg 49.3¢	$6.7K	$8.2K	+$1.5K	50% 359-356 (715)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 50.4¢	$6.1K	$7.4K	+$1.2K	46% 8100-9429 (17529)
AS askilika	Hawksavg 62¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$102.21	50% 209-211 (420)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$5.3K	$3.8K	$-1.3K	47% 2629-2932 (5561)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$4.6K	$3.3K	$-1.2K	50% 2584-2583 (5167)
LI Limousin	Hawksavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$329.61	51% 381-364 (745)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 38.4¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$52.82	54% 17537-14740 (32277)
RO ropetardCTR	Pacersavg 39.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.56	63% 85-49 (134)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$998	$929.88	-$68.12	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
RN1	Hawksavg 59.7¢	$720.31	$730.5	+$10.19	54% 58214-50445 (108659)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$762.97	$721.85	-$41.12	51% 20672-19637 (40309)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$504.37	$461.09	-$43.28
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 60¢	$258.6	$260.76	+$2.15
AN Anon455	Hawksavg 60¢	$600	$605	+$5	55% 3183-2592 (5775)
LI LightParadox	Hawksavg 50.9¢	$337.87	$411.46	+$63.64	52% 378-349 (727)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pacersavg 47.3¢	$724.9	$403.24	-$59.96	47% 13202-14757 (27959)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47.3¢	$297.37	$248.36	-$66.36
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 56¢	$143.35	$154.87	+$6.4
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pacersavg 42.9¢	$297.93	$288.05	-$9.89	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59.5¢	$142.6	$144.96	+$2.35
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 42.9¢	$155.33	$143.09	-$12.24
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Hawksavg 54¢	$189.05	$217.06	+$22.76	46% 472-546 (1018)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$265	$190	-$75	53% 5759-5100 (10859)
fyrskenCTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$175.99	$151.99	-$18	48% 301-323 (624)
SN SnakeBall	Hawksavg 49.9¢	$120.62	$146.32	+$25.7	50% 34766-34237 (69003)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$105.19	$90.85	-$5.98	48% 5572-6026 (11598)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$94.95	$84.17	-$10.78	58% 29933-21984 (51917)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$54.75	$44.24	-$10.51
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 60.9¢	$40.2	$39.93	-$0.27
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$13.64	$11.78	-$0.78	53% 6516-5872 (12388)
GH ghorrockCTR	Pacersavg 47.5¢	$107.57	$9.79	-$12.69	57% 17433-13012 (30445)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$10.6	$7.6	-$2.7	56% 7482-5994 (13476)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.7	$1.9	-$0.8	52% 8285-7512 (15797)

Venusian

Hawks

Invested

$6,697.52

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

359-356 (715)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$6,137.41

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

8100-9429 (17529)

askilika

Hawks

Invested

$4,224.87

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$102.21

Record

50%

209-211 (420)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Pacers

Invested

$5,300

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

2629-2932 (5561)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Pacers

Invested

$4,580.56

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

2584-2583 (5167)

Limousin

Hawks

Invested

$1,763.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$329.61

Record

51%

381-364 (745)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,846.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.82

Record

54%

17537-14740 (32277)

ropetardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,239.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.56

Record

63%

85-49 (134)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pacers

Invested

$998

Value

$929.88

PnL

-$68.12

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

RN1

Hawks

Invested

$720.31

Value

$730.5

PnL

+$10.19

Record

54%

58214-50445 (108659)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$762.97

Value

$721.85

PnL

-$41.12

Record

51%

20672-19637 (40309)

Both legs:

Pacers$504.3743.2¢-$43.28

Hawks$258.660¢+$2.15

Anon455

Hawks

Invested

$600

Value

$605

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

3183-2592 (5775)

LightParadox

Hawks

Invested

$337.87

Value

$411.46

PnL

+$63.64

Record

52%

378-349 (727)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$724.9

Value

$403.24

PnL

-$59.96

Record

47%

13202-14757 (27959)

Both legs:

Pacers$297.3747.3¢-$66.36

Hawks$143.3556¢+$6.4

sentrioARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$297.93

Value

$288.05

PnL

-$9.89

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

Both legs:

Hawks$142.659.5¢+$2.35

Pacers$155.3342.9¢-$12.24

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Hawks

Invested

$189.05

Value

$217.06

PnL

+$22.76

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$265

Value

$190

PnL

-$75

Record

53%

5759-5100 (10859)

fyrskenCTR

Pacers

Invested

$175.99

Value

$151.99

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

301-323 (624)

SnakeBall

Hawks

Invested

$120.62

Value

$146.32

PnL

+$25.7

Record

50%

34766-34237 (69003)

ferdinand2CTR

Pacers

Invested

$105.19

Value

$90.85

PnL

-$5.98

Record

48%

5572-6026 (11598)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$94.95

Value

$84.17

PnL

-$10.78

Record

58%

29933-21984 (51917)

Both legs:

Pacers$54.7548.9¢-$10.51

Hawks$40.260.9¢-$0.27

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$13.64

Value

$11.78

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

6516-5872 (12388)

ghorrockCTR

Pacers

Invested

$107.57

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$12.69

Record

57%

17433-13012 (30445)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$10.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$2.7

Record

56%

7482-5994 (13476)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

8285-7512 (15797)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 21 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

32% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrPacers 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 68% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.