Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 53¢ · $88K held · ends Nov 3

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.5K

Combined PnL

-$5.9

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 17 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares89,328

Combined PnL+$476.67

Over15 traders

Total Value$44.7K

Total Shares85,295

Combined PnL-$482.57

Under — 12%Over — 88%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$40.4K	$40.9K	+$507.92	45% 89-108 (197)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.1¢	$20.7K	$20.5K	-$252.09	54% 17531-14733 (32264)
VE Venusian	Overavg 53¢	$15.9K	$15.8K	-$150.33	51% 325-313 (638)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$24.27	51% 4859-4601 (9460)
LI Limousin	Overavg 53¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$45.9	53% 352-316 (668)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$31.25	61% 4000-2513 (6513)
0xheavy888	Overavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.9	56% 7479-5990 (13469)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 53¢	$944.47	$935.44	-$9.03	48% 5526-5987 (11513)
tradecraft	Overavg 53¢	$476.2	$467.22	-$8.98	51% 6169-5888 (12057)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$340.71	$342.67	+$1.97	47% 13123-14702 (27825)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$258.03	$260.78	+$2.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$82.68	$81.9	-$0.78
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 52¢	$257.82	$257.82	+$0	50% 34733-34199 (68932)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 52.9¢	$220.79	$218.93	-$1.86	53% 3131-2737 (5868)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Overavg 52¢	$206.96	$206.96	+$0	53% 2362-2057 (4419)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 53¢	$99.11	$98.18	-$0.94	53% 344-307 (651)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 53¢	$64.66	$64.05	-$0.61	46% 7292-8602 (15894)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 53¢	$42.93	$42.53	-$0.41	58% 29926-21975 (51901)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.25	+$0.05	53% 7659-6922 (14581)
IC ic4cream<$100	Overavg 53¢	$4.77	$4.68	-$0.09	59% 2668-1877 (4545)

chubbytoroCTR

Under

Invested

$40,438.68

Value

$40.9K

PnL

+$507.92

Record

45%

89-108 (197)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$20,729.47

Value

$20.5K

PnL

-$252.09

Record

54%

17531-14733 (32264)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$15,934.98

Value

$15.8K

PnL

-$150.33

Record

51%

325-313 (638)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$2,572.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$24.27

Record

51%

4859-4601 (9460)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$2,432.94

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$45.9

Record

53%

352-316 (668)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$31.25

Record

61%

4000-2513 (6513)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$1,237.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.9

Record

56%

7479-5990 (13469)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$944.47

Value

$935.44

PnL

-$9.03

Record

48%

5526-5987 (11513)

tradecraft

Over

Invested

$476.2

Value

$467.22

PnL

-$8.98

Record

51%

6169-5888 (12057)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$340.71

Value

$342.67

PnL

+$1.97

Record

47%

13123-14702 (27825)

Both legs:

Under$258.0347¢+$2.75

Over$82.6853¢-$0.78

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$257.82

Value

$257.82

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

34733-34199 (68932)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$220.79

Value

$218.93

PnL

-$1.86

Record

53%

3131-2737 (5868)

0x0A77exmm

Over

Invested

$206.96

Value

$206.96

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2362-2057 (4419)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$99.11

Value

$98.18

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

344-307 (651)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$64.66

Value

$64.05

PnL

-$0.61

Record

46%

7292-8602 (15894)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$42.93

Value

$42.53

PnL

-$0.41

Record

58%

29926-21975 (51901)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7659-6922 (14581)

ic4cream<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.09

Record

59%

2668-1877 (4545)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 17 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.