Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$258.24

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 99.6¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,341

Combined PnL+$270.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$11.18

Total Shares2,574

Combined PnL-$11.91

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

359h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.5¢	$923.96	$894.69	+$0.2	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.4¢	$461.49	$461.98	+$0.49	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 79.5¢	$298.02	$313.41	+$61.97	41% 6729-9567 (16296)
GO god83743894	Noavg 30.7¢	$79.84	$199.1	+$165.24	46% 10071-11765 (21836)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.8¢	$224.49	$134.39	-$0.32	47% 8058-9236 (17294)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.8¢	$102.64	$102.43	-$0.26	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
TY Tysha	Noavg 99.5¢	$106.37	$99.71	+$43.34	72% 8571-3391 (11962)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$90.73	$90.3	-$0.43	52% 6119-5645 (11764)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.93	$29.87	-$0.06	50% 9478-9478 (18956)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$19.17	$10.37	-$8.8	59% 3642-2534 (6176)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.97	-$0.02	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.21	$0.7	-$0.58	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$1.3	$0.06	-$1.24	24% 692-2171 (2863)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$1.29	17% 1065-5312 (6377)

Lucerys

Invested

$923.96

Value

$894.69

PnL

+$0.2

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$461.49

Value

$461.98

PnL

+$0.49

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

godblessme2026

Invested

$298.02

Value

$313.41

PnL

+$61.97

Record

41%

6729-9567 (16296)

god83743894

Invested

$79.84

Value

$199.1

PnL

+$165.24

Record

46%

10071-11765 (21836)

mildwindow27

Invested

$224.49

Value

$134.39

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

8058-9236 (17294)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$102.64

Value

$102.43

PnL

-$0.26

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

Tysha

Invested

$106.37

Value

$99.71

PnL

+$43.34

Record

72%

8571-3391 (11962)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$90.73

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$0.43

Record

52%

6119-5645 (11764)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.87

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

9478-9478 (18956)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.17

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$8.8

Record

59%

3642-2534 (6176)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.58

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.24

Record

24%

692-2171 (2863)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.29

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

359h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.