Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.5

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 95.1¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,130

Combined PnL-$8.92

Yes6 traders

Total Value$625.79

Total Shares13,179

Combined PnL-$38.58

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

376h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 95.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.36	56% 18390-14714 (33104)
XAE12Archangel	Noavg 98¢	$353.78	$345.48	-$9.39	66% 786-407 (1193)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$536.93	$343.23	-$176.58	45% 2375-2942 (5317)
Lucerys	Noavg 95.7¢	$196.36	$195.5	-$0.87	79% 10644-2797 (13441)
TY Tysha	Noavg 97¢	$194.02	$192.52	-$1.5	72% 8554-3323 (11877)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$11.14	$128.93	+$56.29	—
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 96.9¢	$106.58	$105.88	-$0.71	50% 7853-7908 (15761)
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$20.12	$51.41	+$32.41	62% 213-133 (346)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$9.68	$51.11	+$41.43	52% 1668-1539 (3207)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$42.7	$42.65	-$0.04	35% 711-1330 (2041)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$26.33	$30.72	+$4.4	59% 3563-2477 (6040)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.55	$28.59	-$0.96	55% 5891-4786 (10677)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$26.38	$26.56	+$0.18	57% 16909-12683 (29592)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$1.32	$20.4	+$3.48	72% 6935-2740 (9675)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,103.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.36

Record

56%

18390-14714 (33104)

XAE12Archangel

Invested

$353.78

Value

$345.48

PnL

-$9.39

Record

66%

786-407 (1193)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$536.93

Value

$343.23

PnL

-$176.58

Record

45%

2375-2942 (5317)

Lucerys

Invested

$196.36

Value

$195.5

PnL

-$0.87

Record

79%

10644-2797 (13441)

Tysha

Invested

$194.02

Value

$192.52

PnL

-$1.5

Record

72%

8554-3323 (11877)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$11.14

Value

$128.93

PnL

+$56.29

Record

—

smallreceipt

Invested

$106.58

Value

$105.88

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

7853-7908 (15761)

notgoodluckCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.12

Value

$51.41

PnL

+$32.41

Record

62%

213-133 (346)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.68

Value

$51.11

PnL

+$41.43

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$42.65

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

711-1330 (2041)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.33

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$4.4

Record

59%

3563-2477 (6040)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$29.55

Value

$28.59

PnL

-$0.96

Record

55%

5891-4786 (10677)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$26.38

Value

$26.56

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

16909-12683 (29592)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$3.48

Record

72%

6935-2740 (9675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

376h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.