Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$311.82

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 98¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,732

Combined PnL+$129.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$230.47

Total Shares9,606

Combined PnL-$440.92

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.54	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$65.67	$165.85	-$421.21	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
GO god83743894	Noavg 37.9¢	$73.95	$164.01	+$116.07	46% 10026-11725 (21751)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$98.76	$99.4	+$0.64	72% 8571-3389 (11960)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 98.8¢	$106.66	$77.53	+$0.5	62% 14246-8888 (23134)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$48.93	$55.75	-$11.74	59% 3638-2528 (6166)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$24.11	$24.31	+$0.2	56% 18151-14046 (32197)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$8.88	$9.2	-$0.85	43% 3085-4121 (7206)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.43	$7.62	+$2.22	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.72	$0.72	+$0	25% 302-922 (1224)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yes	$180.36	$0.53	-$10.19	17% 1063-5309 (6372)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,334.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.54

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$65.67

Value

$165.85

PnL

-$421.21

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

god83743894

Invested

$73.95

Value

$164.01

PnL

+$116.07

Record

46%

10026-11725 (21751)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$98.76

Value

$99.4

PnL

+$0.64

Record

72%

8571-3389 (11960)

graynotebook19

Invested

$106.66

Value

$77.53

PnL

+$0.5

Record

62%

14246-8888 (23134)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.93

Value

$55.75

PnL

-$11.74

Record

59%

3638-2528 (6166)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$24.11

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

18151-14046 (32197)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$8.88

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

43%

3085-4121 (7206)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$2.22

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

302-922 (1224)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.36

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$10.19

Record

17%

1063-5309 (6372)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.