Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $726 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$725.78

Combined PnL

-$525.24

Smart Money Entry

6.4¢ → 0.7¢

-89% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$676.24

Total Shares681

Combined PnL-$6.91

Yes3 traders

Total Value$49.35

Total Shares9,577

Combined PnL-$518.32

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

330h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.6¢	$478.88	$476.43	-$2.45	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
TY Tysha	Noavg 99.7¢	$106.49	$100.01	-$6.48	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
PI pieped<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$67.62	$70.08	+$2.21	41% 74-107 (181)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$551.1	$34.93	-$516.17	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.72	-$0.2	63% 12954-7737 (20691)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.6	$9.59	+$0.98	59% 3562-2476 (6038)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$2.56	$4.83	-$3.13	21% 2284-8698 (10982)

cigarettes

Invested

$478.88

Value

$476.43

PnL

-$2.45

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

Tysha

Invested

$106.49

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$6.48

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

pieped<$100

Invested

$67.62

Value

$70.08

PnL

+$2.21

Record

41%

74-107 (181)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$551.1

Value

$34.93

PnL

-$516.17

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.72

PnL

-$0.2

Record

63%

12954-7737 (20691)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$0.98

Record

59%

3562-2476 (6038)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$3.13

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

330h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5559.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

5659.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.