Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$47.15

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 94.4¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,296

Combined PnL-$1.72

Yes6 traders

Total Value$608.25

Total Shares11,280

Combined PnL-$45.43

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94.9¢	$902.47	$903.45	+$0.98	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$531.73	$370.38	-$141.57	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
TY Tysha	Noavg 96.4¢	$192.82	$190.02	-$2.8	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 94.9¢	$137.65	$137.75	+$0.1	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$78.71	$125.5	+$46.8	—
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$23.77	$63.7	+$35.12	62% 213-133 (346)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$29.58	$27.35	-$2.23	59% 3562-2476 (6038)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.07	$21.07	+$16.31	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.09	$0.26	+$0.15	52% 1668-1539 (3207)

cigarettes

Invested

$902.47

Value

$903.45

PnL

+$0.98

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$531.73

Value

$370.38

PnL

-$141.57

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

Tysha

Invested

$192.82

Value

$190.02

PnL

-$2.8

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

godblessme2026

Invested

$137.65

Value

$137.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$78.71

Value

$125.5

PnL

+$46.8

Record

—

notgoodluckCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.77

Value

$63.7

PnL

+$35.12

Record

62%

213-133 (346)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.58

Value

$27.35

PnL

-$2.23

Record

59%

3562-2476 (6038)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$16.31

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.