Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?

19 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$732.67

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 96¢

+13% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,992

Combined PnL+$305.85

Yes7 traders

Total Value$47.54

Total Shares2,108

Combined PnL+$426.83

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4570h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 89¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$81.38	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84.3¢	$886.37	$409.06	+$9.62	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.9¢	$342.83	$356.2	+$25.97	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 46.3¢	$173.9	$200.76	+$140.93	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 97.1¢	$199.85	$191.5	-$2.7	56% 15814-12510 (28324)
Lucerys	Noavg 83.7¢	$187.25	$105.05	+$12.93	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 87¢	$85.03	$93.33	+$8.31	32% 440-926 (1366)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$65.05	$71.05	+$6	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$80.73	$49.89	+$4.17	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$30.87	$31.21	+$0.34	48% 7082-7768 (14850)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 86¢	$72.15	$31.06	+$4.63	52% 242-226 (468)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$28.65	+$1.95	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$39.35	$20.03	+$3.91	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.42	$18.9	+$1.48	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$27.87	$18.69	+$3.82	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$14.68	$16.14	+$1.46	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$35.9	$13.23	+$225.09	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84¢	$13.13	$12.58	-$0.43	15% 459-2699 (3158)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$968.75	$12.04	-$18.07	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$24.98	$11.09	-$13.89	56% 444-352 (796)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$23.74	$9.6	+$1.4	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$55.22	$7.9	-$22.61	51% 2399-2351 (4750)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.77	+$0.67	53% 1775-1556 (3331)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$361.16	$2.73	+$260.7	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.56	$0.34	-$2.23	79% 411-106 (517)

influenz.eth

Invested

$1,114.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$81.38

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$886.37

Value

$409.06

PnL

+$9.62

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$342.83

Value

$356.2

PnL

+$25.97

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$173.9

Value

$200.76

PnL

+$140.93

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$199.85

Value

$191.5

PnL

-$2.7

Record

56%

15814-12510 (28324)

Lucerys

Invested

$187.25

Value

$105.05

PnL

+$12.93

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

akroll<$100

Invested

$85.03

Value

$93.33

PnL

+$8.31

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$65.05

Value

$71.05

PnL

+$6

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$80.73

Value

$49.89

PnL

+$4.17

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$30.87

Value

$31.21

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

7082-7768 (14850)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$72.15

Value

$31.06

PnL

+$4.63

Record

52%

242-226 (468)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$1.95

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$39.35

Value

$20.03

PnL

+$3.91

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$17.42

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$1.48

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.87

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$3.82

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.68

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$1.46

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$35.9

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$225.09

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$12.58

PnL

-$0.43

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$968.75

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$18.07

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.98

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$13.89

Record

56%

444-352 (796)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$23.74

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$1.4

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.22

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$22.61

Record

51%

2399-2351 (4750)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.67

Record

53%

1775-1556 (3331)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$361.16

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$260.7

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$2.23

Record

79%

411-106 (517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4570h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.