Consensus PnL -$112K · win rate 73% (140–52, n=192) · PM monthly #708 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-112.3K
Record
140W / 52L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 192 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#433
Source
PM monthly #708
Record (90 d)
80/113 · 71%
Trades
49
Markets
208
Volume
$1.5M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Golden Knights vs. SabresSabres $1.5K · now 11¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Golden Knights)
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 $910 · now 55¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (49% of 55)
Specialties
191 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 73¢- Esports
+5 pts
side won 73% of 59 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 85% of 26 · avg entry 82¢
ROI −14%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 79% of 14 at an average 80¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 36% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 57% of 53)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 89% of 116)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.