Golden Knights vs. Sabres

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (38%) · Golden Knights at 87¢ · $50K held · ended Nov 8

Golden Knights87¢Sabres13¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Golden Knights

Consensus Traders

Golden Knights 38%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.6K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 86.5¢

+70% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

8 of 21 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights87%

Sabres14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights8 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares50,416

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Sabres13 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares34,454

Combined PnL-$718.12

Golden Knights — 38%Sabres — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden Knights 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSabres 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedSabres 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sabres 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Golden Knightsavg 50.6¢	$22.1K	$27.8K	+$5.6K	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Sabresavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100	55% 244-196 (440)
RO royalestakeCTR	Sabresavg 50¢	$5.0K	$2.5K	-$25	47% 425-472 (897)
CO cocococococo	Golden Knightsavg 50.2¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$11.18	52% 1789-1619 (3408)
VladooosCTR	Sabresavg 53.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$113.42	69% 143-63 (206)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sabresavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$480	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
HO HomeRunHazard	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$998.34	$968.38	-$29.95	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
LI LightParadox	Golden Knightsavg 51.3¢	$799.35	$795.45	+$7.8	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sabresavg 50¢	$765.95	$442.52	-$323.43	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 48¢	$153.95	$277.28	+$123.33
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 50¢	$612	$165.24	-$446.76
0xheavy888CTR	Sabresavg 50¢	$332.99	$329.66	-$3.33	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Sabresavg 49¢	$301.34	$322.87	+$21.52	51% 465-452 (917)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Golden Knightsavg 64.1¢	$346.05	$318.37	-$27.68	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Sabresavg 52.9¢	$639.26	$301.4	-$337.86	57% 20231-15051 (35282)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 51¢	$95.88	$162.62	+$66.74
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 52.9¢	$543.38	$138.78	-$404.6
PT PT-S7	Golden Knightsavg 68¢	$255	$227.3	+$57.97	46% 3489-4040 (7529)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sabresavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sabresavg 49.6¢	$550.1	$147.39	-$293.24	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 49.6¢	$344.82	$93.76	-$315.25
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 51¢	$31.62	$53.63	+$22.01
WE westing.v1	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$118.83	$120.02	+$1.19	49% 61-63 (124)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Sabresavg 45.6¢	$233.11	$118.35	-$49.66	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 50.3¢	$50.33	$86.5	+$35.5
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 45.6¢	$107.49	$31.85	-$85.16
JU justaluckydude<$100	Golden Knightsavg 84¢	$80.63	$83.03	+$2.4	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 84¢	$88.62	$79.98	-$8.64	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 84¢	$50.4	$51.9	+$1.5
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 18.4¢	$38.22	$28.08	-$10.14
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sabresavg 49.5¢	$249.33	$67.94	-$181.39	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sabresavg 49¢	$27.13	$20.21	-$6.92	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Sabresavg 34¢	$20.4	$8.1	-$12.3	55% 685-566 (1251)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Sabresavg 35.3¢	$18.97	$7.25	-$11.72	53% 692-622 (1314)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Sabresavg 30¢	$5.35	$2.41	-$2.94	50% 23482-23489 (46971)

nigiri99

Golden Knights

Invested

$22,139.52

Value

$27.8K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

ChonkVisionCTR

Sabres

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

244-196 (440)

royalestakeCTR

Sabres

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

425-472 (897)

cocococococo

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,115.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.18

Record

52%

1789-1619 (3408)

VladooosCTR

Sabres

Invested

$1,636.84

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$113.42

Record

69%

143-63 (206)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sabres

Invested

$1,940

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$480

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

HomeRunHazard

Golden Knights

Invested

$998.34

Value

$968.38

PnL

-$29.95

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

LightParadox

Golden Knights

Invested

$799.35

Value

$795.45

PnL

+$7.8

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Sabres

Invested

$765.95

Value

$442.52

PnL

-$323.43

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$153.9548¢+$123.33

Sabres$61250¢-$446.76

0xheavy888CTR

Sabres

Invested

$332.99

Value

$329.66

PnL

-$3.33

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

PIPIZINCTR

Sabres

Invested

$301.34

Value

$322.87

PnL

+$21.52

Record

51%

465-452 (917)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Golden Knights

Invested

$346.05

Value

$318.37

PnL

-$27.68

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Sabres

Invested

$639.26

Value

$301.4

PnL

-$337.86

Record

57%

20231-15051 (35282)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$95.8851¢+$66.74

Sabres$543.3852.9¢-$404.6

PT-S7

Golden Knights

Invested

$255

Value

$227.3

PnL

+$57.97

Record

46%

3489-4040 (7529)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Sabres

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sabres

Invested

$550.1

Value

$147.39

PnL

-$293.24

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Sabres$344.8249.6¢-$315.25

Golden Knights$31.6251¢+$22.01

westing.v1

Golden Knights

Invested

$118.83

Value

$120.02

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

Pan9XARB<$100

Sabres

Invested

$233.11

Value

$118.35

PnL

-$49.66

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$50.3350.3¢+$35.5

Sabres$107.4945.6¢-$85.16

justaluckydude<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$80.63

Value

$83.03

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

ojgARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$88.62

Value

$79.98

PnL

-$8.64

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$50.484¢+$1.5

Sabres$38.2218.4¢-$10.14

FlaznorpCTR

Sabres

Invested

$249.33

Value

$67.94

PnL

-$181.39

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$27.13

Value

$20.21

PnL

-$6.92

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$20.4

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$12.3

Record

55%

685-566 (1251)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$18.97

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$11.72

Record

53%

692-622 (1314)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$5.35

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

8 of 21 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden Knights 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSabres 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedSabres 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sabres 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Golden Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.