Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 5 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 16¢ · $75K held · ended Nov 1

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

Total Value

$75.1K

Combined PnL

$-18.9K

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 16¢

-67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 24 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$64.2K

Total Shares74,264

Combined PnL+$28.9K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares120,596

Combined PnL$-47.8K

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 49.7¢	$8.4K	$17.7K	+$9.2K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
CA Cannae	Noavg 51.6¢	$6.4K	$11.3K	+$4.9K	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
NB nb1985CTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$59.2K	$10.8K	$-47.8K	51% 25-24 (49)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 51¢	$5.6K	$10.8K	+$5.2K	49% 257-266 (523)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 52¢	$3.5K	$6.4K	+$2.9K	50% 2543-2531 (5074)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 51.7¢	$3.4K	$5.9K	+$2.6K	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.1¢	$2.7K	$4.7K	+$2.0K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52¢	$629.8	$1.1K	+$467.5	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
oieshfn345	Noavg 74.7¢	$961.41	$1.1K	+$113.56	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 53.4¢	$570.36	$1.0K	+$337.44	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 51¢	$500	$892.15	+$397.06	49% 3938-4125 (8063)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 51¢	$500	$892.15	+$220.59	51% 3949-3850 (7799)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.7¢	$767.59	$878.56	+$110.97	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
0xheavy888	Noavg 52.5¢	$420	$732	+$304	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 52.6¢	$217.6	$341.55	+$123.95	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
poshposh	Noavg 92¢	$138	$129	-$9	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 92¢	$100	$98.91	-$1.09	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
SL slimjoe<$100	Noavg 52¢	$49.92	$87.36	+$0	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 71¢	$55.66	$74.09	+$18.42	59% 30673-21383 (52056)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$22.4	$41.18	+$18.78	62% 1191-724 (1915)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$9.65	$12.41	+$2.76	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$3.32	$3.95	+$0.63	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$0.45	-$1.85	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$0.28	-$1.9	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

RN1

Invested

$8,410.81

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Cannae

Invested

$6,426.24

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

nb1985CTR

Yes

Invested

$59,248.24

Value

$10.8K

PnL

$-47.8K

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

Kyn008

Invested

$5,630.6

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$3,523.47

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

2543-2531 (5074)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$3,363

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,710.22

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$629.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$467.5

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

oieshfn345

Invested

$961.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$113.56

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

SnakeBall

Invested

$570.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$337.44

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$892.15

PnL

+$397.06

Record

49%

3938-4125 (8063)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$500

Value

$892.15

PnL

+$220.59

Record

51%

3949-3850 (7799)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$767.59

Value

$878.56

PnL

+$110.97

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

0xheavy888

Invested

$420

Value

$732

PnL

+$304

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$217.6

Value

$341.55

PnL

+$123.95

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

poshposh

Invested

$138

Value

$129

PnL

-$9

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

foooool<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$98.91

PnL

-$1.09

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

slimjoe<$100

Invested

$49.92

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$55.66

Value

$74.09

PnL

+$18.42

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$41.18

PnL

+$18.78

Record

62%

1191-724 (1915)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$2.76

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.85

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.9

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 24 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.