Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 38¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 1

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.8K

Combined PnL

-$172.1

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 37.5¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares34,564

Combined PnL-$299.85

No8 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares19,526

Combined PnL+$127.75

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crisp1973CTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$16.2K	$15.9K	-$300	52% 76-69 (145)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 53¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$46.89	49% 257-266 (523)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 53¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$25.98	50% 2543-2531 (5074)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.81	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 53¢	$954	$972	+$18	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.5¢	$515.07	$432	+$4.28	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$350.46	$372.75	+$22.29	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.2¢	$240.21	$285.74	+$45.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$110.25	$87.01	-$23.24
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 53.3¢	$145.63	$147.42	+$1.79	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.97	$2.97	+$0	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.8	+$0.15	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 51¢	$1.53	$1.53	+$0	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

crisp1973CTR

Yes

Invested

$16,197.15

Value

$15.9K

PnL

-$300

Record

52%

76-69 (145)

Kyn008

Invested

$4,970.86

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$46.89

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,753.46

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$25.98

Record

50%

2543-2531 (5074)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,097.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.81

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$954

Value

$972

PnL

+$18

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$515.07

Value

$432

PnL

+$4.28

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$350.46

Value

$372.75

PnL

+$22.29

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Both legs:

No$240.2154.2¢+$45.53

Yes$110.2545¢-$23.24

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$145.63

Value

$147.42

PnL

+$1.79

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.