Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$6.42
-$153.68
1.8¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $10 | $2.5 | -$8.75 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $3 | $1.5 | -$2.25 | 9% 48-465 (513) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $76.12 | $1.07 | -$75.05 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.7 | $0.7 | -$24.56 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
12 123987456CTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $762.9 | $0.56 | -$39.51 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.85 | $0.05 | -$1.8 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$1.76 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$8.75
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$3
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$2.25
Record
9%
48-465 (513)
Invested
$76.12
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$75.05
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$24.56
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
Invested
$762.9
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$39.51
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.8
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.76
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.