Counter-Strike: DNK vs Wingman (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (44%) · DNK at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

DNK76¢Wingman24¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DNK

Consensus Traders

DNK 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$83.29

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 75.5¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DNK76%

Wingman25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,224

Combined PnL+$227.72

Wingman5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,954

Combined PnL-$144.43

DNK — 44%Wingman — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on DNK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDNK 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWingman 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Wingman 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SW swiftFoxx	DNKavg 54¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$219.61	70% 55-24 (79)
poshposhARB<$100	DNKavg 64.8¢	$672.46	$621.63	-$50.82	58% 11432-8282 (19714)
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 64.8¢	$529.02	$473.24	-$55.78
└ Wingman leg	Wingmanavg 40.6¢	$143.44	$148.4	+$4.96
alpheclabs2CTR	Wingmanavg 43¢	$675.51	$605.22	-$70.29	49% 93-98 (191)
SK skibidipaCTR	Wingmanavg 37.5¢	$1.1K	$416.85	+$20.98	63% 17-10 (27)
38 38791873984189CTR	Wingmanavg 46.4¢	$1.0K	$395	-$69.25	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Wingmanavg 33.3¢	$101.43	$76.22	-$25.21	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
CI cigarettes<$100	DNKavg 59¢	$29.5	$37.75	+$8.25	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	DNKavg 59.3¢	$24.05	$23.34	-$0.71	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Wingmanavg 45¢	$10	$9.33	-$0.67	66% 23620-11932 (35552)
LR lryyy<$100	DNKavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.28	+$0.58	46% 7932-9255 (17187)

swiftFoxx

DNK

Invested

$1,688.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$219.61

Record

70%

55-24 (79)

poshposhARB<$100

DNK

Invested

$672.46

Value

$621.63

PnL

-$50.82

Record

58%

11432-8282 (19714)

Both legs:

DNK$529.0264.8¢-$55.78

Wingman$143.4440.6¢+$4.96

alpheclabs2CTR

Wingman

Invested

$675.51

Value

$605.22

PnL

-$70.29

Record

49%

93-98 (191)

skibidipaCTR

Wingman

Invested

$1,055.31

Value

$416.85

PnL

+$20.98

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

38791873984189CTR

Wingman

Invested

$1,000

Value

$395

PnL

-$69.25

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

topdogbigboiCTR

Wingman

Invested

$101.43

Value

$76.22

PnL

-$25.21

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

cigarettes<$100

DNK

Invested

$29.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$8.25

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

omnibus-076daa<$100

DNK

Invested

$24.05

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Wingman

Invested

$10

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$0.67

Record

66%

23620-11932 (35552)

lryyy<$100

DNK

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.58

Record

46%

7932-9255 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on DNK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDNK 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWingman 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Wingman 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DNK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.