Brest: Moise Kouame vs Martin Damm

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Moise Kouame (56%) · Moise Kouame at 70¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

Moise Kouame70¢Martin Damm30¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moise Kouame

Consensus Traders

Moise Kouame 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

-$131.52

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Moise Kouame70%

Martin Damm31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moise Kouame5 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares10,672

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Martin Damm4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,445

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Moise Kouame — 56%Martin Damm — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Moise Kouame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMoise Kouame 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoise Kouame 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Moise Kouame 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Moise Kouameavg 71.1¢	$7.6K	$8.7K	+$1.2K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR	Martin Dammavg 52¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.3K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Moise Kouameavg 70.4¢	$940.67	$844.71	-$95.96	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 70.4¢	$549.2	$643.7	+$94.49
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 34.1¢	$391.47	$201.01	-$190.46
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Moise Kouameavg 69.7¢	$252.56	$192.47	-$46.59	53% 674-597 (1271)
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 69.7¢	$128.39	$133.57	+$5.19
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 47¢	$100.67	$58.9	-$51.77
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Moise Kouameavg 47¢	$111.68	$157.35	+$4.07	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 47¢	$79.83	$122.25	+$0.82
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 50¢	$65	$35.1	+$3.25
tradecraftARB<$100	Martin Dammavg 30¢	$114.09	$152.34	+$38.25	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 30¢	$68.4	$76.38	+$7.98
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 47¢	$53.68	$75.96	+$30.27
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Martin Dammavg 57¢	$92.13	$87.67	-$4.46	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Moise Kouameavg 48¢	$26.68	$40.02	-$1.95	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Martin Dammavg 51.4¢	$62.89	$33.01	-$29.88	65% 1758-962 (2720)
TRCM<$100	Moise Kouameavg 78.2¢	$24.51	$25.86	+$1.35	55% 3961-3190 (7151)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Moise Kouameavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$7.15	+$2.7	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
HRTrading<$100	Moise Kouameavg 77.8¢	$6.63	$6.52	-$0.11	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Martin Dammavg 22¢	$1.19	$1.35	+$0.16	56% 1865-1449 (3314)

UpTheBlues

Moise Kouame

Invested

$7,568.32

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR

Martin Damm

Invested

$2,633.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$940.67

Value

$844.71

PnL

-$95.96

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Both legs:

Moise Kouame$549.270.4¢+$94.49

Martin Damm$391.4734.1¢-$190.46

1lovejumpARB<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$252.56

Value

$192.47

PnL

-$46.59

Record

53%

674-597 (1271)

Both legs:

Moise Kouame$128.3969.7¢+$5.19

Martin Damm$100.6747¢-$51.77

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$111.68

Value

$157.35

PnL

+$4.07

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Moise Kouame$79.8347¢+$0.82

Martin Damm$6550¢+$3.25

tradecraftARB<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$114.09

Value

$152.34

PnL

+$38.25

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$68.430¢+$7.98

Moise Kouame$53.6847¢+$30.27

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Martin Damm

Invested

$92.13

Value

$87.67

PnL

-$4.46

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Bagwell306<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$26.68

Value

$40.02

PnL

-$1.95

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$62.89

Value

$33.01

PnL

-$29.88

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

TRCM<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$24.51

Value

$25.86

PnL

+$1.35

Record

55%

3961-3190 (7151)

ameisgoat11<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$4.65

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$2.7

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

HRTrading<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

1865-1449 (3314)

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Moise Kouame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMoise Kouame 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoise Kouame 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Moise Kouame 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moise Kouame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.