Bengals vs. Falcons

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (75%) · Bengals at 62¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 8

Bengals62¢Falcons38¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.3K

Combined PnL

-$125.82

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals62%

Falcons39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons3 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares46,882

Combined PnL-$230.87

Bengals9 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares40,836

Combined PnL+$105.05

Falcons — 25%Bengals — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBengals 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bengals 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZacharyCTR	Falconsavg 39¢	$46.4K	$17.9K	-$232.12	43% 118-154 (272)
BA bands1	Bengalsavg 61¢	$12.2K	$12.3K	+$100	49% 419-429 (848)
TKD44	Bengalsavg 61¢	$11.0K	$11.0K	+$0	48% 167-180 (347)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Bengalsavg 61.6¢	$916.79	$914.69	-$2.1	53% 667-585 (1252)
DA darkumbreon88	Bengalsavg 60.9¢	$311.24	$311.69	+$0.45	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
NM NM-P	Bengalsavg 60¢	$300	$305	+$5	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Bengalsavg 60¢	$183.59	$185.29	+$3.56	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 60¢	$115.04	$116.91	+$2.83
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 38.1¢	$68.55	$68.39	+$0.74
65 6512395314597884	Bengalsavg 61¢	$160.73	$160.73	+$1.32	51% 4999-4865 (9864)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 37.9¢	$130.3	$120.83	+$1.94	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 39.7¢	$55.06	$52.68	-$0.69	50% 21530-21816 (43346)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 61¢	$24.13	$27.93	+$0.09	54% 10426-8742 (19168)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Bengalsavg 61¢	$18.29	$18.29	+$0.15	48% 7444-7979 (15423)
VeryLucky888<$100	Bengalsavg 59¢	$4.73	$4.88	+$0.15	58% 47459-34244 (81703)

EdZacharyCTR

Falcons

Invested

$46,433.56

Value

$17.9K

PnL

-$232.12

Record

43%

118-154 (272)

bands1

Bengals

Invested

$12,199.98

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

TKD44

Bengals

Invested

$10,980

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

167-180 (347)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Bengals

Invested

$916.79

Value

$914.69

PnL

-$2.1

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

darkumbreon88

Bengals

Invested

$311.24

Value

$311.69

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

NM-P

Bengals

Invested

$300

Value

$305

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$183.59

Value

$185.29

PnL

+$3.56

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

Both legs:

Bengals$115.0460¢+$2.83

Falcons$68.5538.1¢+$0.74

6512395314597884

Bengals

Invested

$160.73

Value

$160.73

PnL

+$1.32

Record

51%

4999-4865 (9864)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$130.3

Value

$120.83

PnL

+$1.94

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$55.06

Value

$52.68

PnL

-$0.69

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$24.13

Value

$27.93

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

Oddstorm<$100

Bengals

Invested

$18.29

Value

$18.29

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

7444-7979 (15423)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bengals

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBengals 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bengals 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.