Iowa vs. Northwestern

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (43%) · Iowa at 56¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 8

Iowa56¢Northwestern44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa

Consensus Traders

Iowa 43%

Total Value

$34.6K

Combined PnL

$260.6

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa56%

Northwestern45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa6 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares39,105

Combined PnL+$411.49

Northwestern8 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares28,362

Combined PnL-$150.89

Iowa — 43%Northwestern — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Iowaavg 55¢	$17.5K	$17.7K	+$159.54	49% 419-429 (848)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Northwesternavg 45.1¢	$9.0K	$8.8K	-$99.99	51% 994-944 (1938)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$3.88	54% 18472-15543 (34015)
nigiri99	Iowaavg 55.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$0.44	46% 8764-10458 (19222)
IC ic4cream	Iowaavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$215.49	56% 2788-2199 (4987)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 47.6¢	$1.6K	$875.83	-$36.37	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
PU purplegatto	Iowaavg 52.5¢	$433.99	$462.86	+$30.93	49% 6379-6553 (12932)
SE sentrioCTR	Northwesternavg 44¢	$231.95	$231.95	+$0	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
NM NM-PCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$225	$220	-$2.5	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
GC GC-PCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$225	$220	-$2.5	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 53¢	$32.86	$27.59	-$5.27	49% 451-468 (919)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100	Iowaavg 45¢	$22.05	$27.2	+$5.15	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
tradecraft<$100	Iowaavg 52.7¢	$12.43	$13.2	+$0.82	51% 6510-6274 (12784)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.2	-$0.38	50% 8429-8472 (16901)

bands1

Iowa

Invested

$17,521.5

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$159.54

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$9,012.41

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$99.99

Record

51%

994-944 (1938)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$2,503

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$3.88

Record

54%

18472-15543 (34015)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$2,113.32

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

8764-10458 (19222)

ic4cream

Iowa

Invested

$1,213.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$215.49

Record

56%

2788-2199 (4987)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,639.65

Value

$875.83

PnL

-$36.37

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

purplegatto

Iowa

Invested

$433.99

Value

$462.86

PnL

+$30.93

Record

49%

6379-6553 (12932)

sentrioCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$231.95

Value

$231.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

NM-PCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$225

Value

$220

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

GC-PCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$225

Value

$220

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$32.86

Value

$27.59

PnL

-$5.27

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100

Iowa

Invested

$22.05

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$5.15

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

tradecraft<$100

Iowa

Invested

$12.43

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

6510-6274 (12784)

RLWGCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

8429-8472 (16901)

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.