Packers vs. Patriots

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (50%) · Patriots at 62¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Packers39¢Patriots61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 50%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$10.4

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPatriots at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers39%

Patriots62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,921

Combined PnL+$87.65

Packers4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,104

Combined PnL-$77.24

Patriots — 50%Packers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (7 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Patriotsavg 60.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$75.41	58% 286-206 (492)
VeryLucky888CTR	Packersavg 39.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$55.02	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
BA bands1	Patriotsavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.44	49% 419-429 (848)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Packersavg 40¢	$432.38	$416.17	-$16.21	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
DV dv-pm	Patriotsavg 61¢	$325.13	$327.8	+$2.67	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
NM NM-P	Patriotsavg 61¢	$314.81	$314.94	+$0.13	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Packersavg 39¢	$203.19	$200.59	-$2.61	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 40.5¢	$105.6	$102.2	-$3.4	48% 62365-67229 (129594)

MAGATheeStallion

Patriots

Invested

$3,035.4

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$75.41

Record

58%

286-206 (492)

VeryLucky888CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,074.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$55.02

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

bands1

Patriots

Invested

$1,152.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.44

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

SnakeBallCTR

Packers

Invested

$432.38

Value

$416.17

PnL

-$16.21

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

dv-pm

Patriots

Invested

$325.13

Value

$327.8

PnL

+$2.67

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

NM-P

Patriots

Invested

$314.81

Value

$314.94

PnL

+$0.13

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

HerdoniaCTR

Packers

Invested

$203.19

Value

$200.59

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$105.6

Value

$102.2

PnL

-$3.4

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

Research grade

NeutralPatriots at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (7 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.