Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$6.73

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$346.56

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$3.94

No6 traders

Total Value$482.31

Total Shares3,131

Combined PnL+$2.8

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$567.48	$576.19	+$8.71	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84¢	$372.88	$375.1	+$2.22
└ No leg	Noavg 15¢	$194.61	$201.09	+$6.49
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 84¢	$305.83	$305.83	-$1.82	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 15¢	$165.8	$171.32	+$5.53	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 15¢	$113.31	$117.09	+$3.78	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$91.02	$94.05	+$3.03	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$98.69	$88.79	-$9.9	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$29.64	$29.64	+$0	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$10.49	$10.84	+$0.35	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$8.6	$8.35	-$0.25	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 84¢	$424.65	$2.75	+$6.01	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.21	$0.22	+$0.01	50% 4959-4888 (9847)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$567.48

Value

$576.19

PnL

+$8.71

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Invested

$305.83

Value

$305.83

PnL

-$1.82

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$165.8

Value

$171.32

PnL

+$5.53

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$113.31

Value

$117.09

PnL

+$3.78

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$91.02

Value

$94.05

PnL

+$3.03

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$98.69

Value

$88.79

PnL

-$9.9

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$424.65

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$6.01

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

hi774cCTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.