Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 90¢ · $250K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$249.5K

Combined PnL

$96.6K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 89.5¢

+71% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$249.3K

Total Shares277,030

Combined PnL+$97.5K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$234.24

Total Shares2,231

Combined PnL-$905.36

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 47.5¢	$42.5K	$80.5K	+$37.6K	59% 118-81 (199)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 54.6¢	$32.0K	$49.6K	+$19.3K	66% 487-255 (742)
JO JoeBlack01	Noavg 53.9¢	$24.8K	$41.0K	+$16.2K	60% 474-313 (787)
DumplingBMF	Noavg 64.7¢	$20.8K	$23.1K	+$2.3K	68% 1830-849 (2679)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 46.3¢	$8.2K	$15.5K	+$7.4K	72% 257-102 (359)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 51.3¢	$5.0K	$8.5K	+$3.5K	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 50.7¢	$4.3K	$7.7K	+$3.3K	47% 85-95 (180)
ET ethBELIVER	No	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$2.1K	40% 25-37 (62)
LO Logan.	Noavg 45.7¢	$2.8K	$5.5K	+$2.7K	41% 648-925 (1573)
GL Gladius7	Noavg 57.5¢	$2.1K	$3.2K	+$1.1K	48% 90-98 (188)
CO cocos228	Noavg 56¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$909.11	72% 68-27 (95)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 79.8¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$221.45	89% 4653-547 (5200)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 56.2¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$705.04	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Porx	Noavg 62.2¢	$777.59	$810.01	+$32.42	66% 1482-769 (2251)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 52.2¢	$241.1	$411.6	+$170.5	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 55.9¢	$155.51	$215.39	+$59.88	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
BI bipbipbopCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.0K	$200.68	-$831.39	64% 2397-1323 (3720)
CQ cqsCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$105.28	$32.51	-$72.77	65% 228-122 (350)
zxdfbdfgngcxv<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$28.32	$28.8	+$0.48	82% 1758-394 (2152)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$2.25	$1.05	-$1.2	50% 357-357 (714)

hopedieslast

Invested

$42,516.44

Value

$80.5K

PnL

+$37.6K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$31,967.71

Value

$49.6K

PnL

+$19.3K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

JoeBlack01

Invested

$24,815

Value

$41.0K

PnL

+$16.2K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

DumplingBMF

Invested

$20,818.97

Value

$23.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

68%

1830-849 (2679)

SlenderMan

Invested

$8,193.78

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$5,019.98

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$4,347.98

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$6,744.33

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

Logan.

Invested

$2,831.09

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Gladius7

Invested

$2,118.82

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

cocos228

Invested

$1,519.71

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$909.11

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,828.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$221.45

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,152.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$705.04

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Porx

Invested

$777.59

Value

$810.01

PnL

+$32.42

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$241.1

Value

$411.6

PnL

+$170.5

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

ghorrock

Invested

$155.51

Value

$215.39

PnL

+$59.88

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

bipbipbopCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,032.07

Value

$200.68

PnL

-$831.39

Record

64%

2397-1323 (3720)

cqsCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.28

Value

$32.51

PnL

-$72.77

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

zxdfbdfgngcxv<$100

Invested

$28.32

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$0.48

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.