Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 56¢ · $19K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$18.7K
$269.51
50.5¢ → 56¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2072h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
55 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bosshog | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $7.4K | $8.0K | +$623.55 | 72% 1052-415 (1467) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $4.3K | $4.0K | -$248.77 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 cat-dog | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$359.08 | 77% 102-31 (133) |
 0x8712CTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$113.17 | 30% 102-237 (339) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 52.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$287.7 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $595.41 | $535.67 | -$59.74 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.8¢ | $66.31 | $64.87 | -$1.44 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $16.83 | $14.85 | -$2.31 | 50% 3947-3930 (7877) |
bosshogInvested
$7,400.7
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$623.55
Record
72%
1052-415 (1467)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$4,281.53
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$248.77
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
cat-dogInvested
$2,441.03
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$359.08
Record
77%
102-31 (133)
0x8712CTRInvested
$1,872.94
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$113.17
Record
30%
102-237 (339)
Invested
$1,744.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$287.7
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$595.41
Value
$535.67
PnL
-$59.74
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$66.31
Value
$64.87
PnL
-$1.44
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$2.31
Record
50%
3947-3930 (7877)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.