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5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Research candidate
No
8
No 63%
$15.9K
-$236.87
88.5¢ → 87¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 87%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
1139h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plumbis | Noavg 88.7¢ | $12.5K | $12.2K | -$231.16 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 bosshog | Noavg 87¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$0 | 72% 1052-415 (1467) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 90.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$62.36 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $142.54 | $185.3 | +$42.76 | 47% 476-535 (1011) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 85¢ | $119.09 | $121.89 | +$2.8 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $32.13 | $68.07 | +$30.71 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $44 | $26 | -$20 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
BR browne<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.35 | +$0.38 | 71% 173-70 (243) |
Invested
$12,461.73
Value
$12.2K
PnL
-$231.16
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
bosshogInvested
$2,174.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
1052-415 (1467)
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,152.35
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$62.36
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$142.54
Value
$185.3
PnL
+$42.76
Record
47%
476-535 (1011)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$119.09
Value
$121.89
PnL
+$2.8
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$32.13
Value
$68.07
PnL
+$30.71
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$44
Value
$26
PnL
-$20
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.38
Record
71%
173-70 (243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.