Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 91¢ · $73K held · ends Jan 8, 2027

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Fri, Jan 8, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$72.7K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 91¢

+5% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$72.6K

Total Shares80,692

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$46.81

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$33.66

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
eCash	Yesavg 93¢	$21.4K	$20.7K	-$468.69	68% 331-155 (486)
WordleAddict	Yesavg 75.6¢	$11.0K	$13.1K	+$2.2K	61% 941-614 (1555)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Yesavg 90.7¢	$11.6K	$11.5K	+$44.5	73% 196-73 (269)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 81.8¢	$11.4K	$11.3K	-$124.91	71% 318-130 (448)
CH chriszyy3	Yesavg 95¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$138.81	94% 242-16 (258)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 92.6¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$45.8	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
RockyZet	Yesavg 84¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$166.12	66% 257-130 (387)
bosshog	Yesavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$220	72% 1052-415 (1467)
wish-	Yesavg 93¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$32.16	79% 1176-319 (1495)
AE Aeglos	Yesavg 94¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$39	82% 18-4 (22)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Yesavg 89.3¢	$974.65	$992.81	+$18.16	55% 79-65 (144)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 92¢	$1.0K	$986.27	-$10.96	59% 1027-717 (1744)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 83.3¢	$857.77	$843.99	+$54.19	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 85¢	$615.86	$659.41	+$43.48	69% 156-69 (225)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Yesavg 3.2¢	$21.51	$220.7	+$223.15	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$76	$45	-$31	67% 347-174 (521)
ME melganis<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$14.5	$45	+$31	75% 1597-541 (2138)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.5	-$0.1	73% 41-15 (56)
GohstCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$4.19	$1.4	-$2.79	49% 738-770 (1508)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 6.8¢	$0.28	$0.41	+$0.13	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$21,399.99

Value

$20.7K

PnL

-$468.69

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

WordleAddict

Yes

Invested

$10,987.62

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

afdafdafdafdafd

Yes

Invested

$11,610.72

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$44.5

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$11,381.47

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$124.91

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

chriszyy3

Yes

Invested

$3,296.81

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$138.81

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$2,688.14

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$45.8

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

RockyZet

Yes

Invested

$1,993.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$166.12

Record

66%

257-130 (387)

bosshog

Yes

Invested

$1,599.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$220

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

wish-

Yes

Invested

$1,479.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$32.16

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Aeglos

Yes

Invested

$1,222

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Yes

Invested

$974.65

Value

$992.81

PnL

+$18.16

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

studmuffin6969

Yes

Invested

$1,008.19

Value

$986.27

PnL

-$10.96

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$857.77

Value

$843.99

PnL

+$54.19

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$615.86

Value

$659.41

PnL

+$43.48

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

wokerjoesleeper

Yes

Invested

$21.51

Value

$220.7

PnL

+$223.15

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

solwizzo-onXCTR<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$45

PnL

-$31

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

melganis<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.5

Value

$45

PnL

+$31

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

GohstCTR<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$2.79

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.