Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (48%) · No at 99¢ · $155K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 48%

Total Value

$155.2K

Combined PnL

$465.04

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 99.2¢

+65% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 23 top traders (48%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$140.4K

Total Shares140,712

Combined PnL+$423.13

Yes12 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares96,669

Combined PnL+$41.91

No — 48%Yes — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4958h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

65 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

48% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
boyau	Noavg 50¢	$110.0K	$110.0K	+$0	44% 230-296 (526)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 97.1¢	$181.8K	$17.5K	+$803.55	59% 999-703 (1702)
wish-CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$14.0K	$14.0K	+$0	79% 1209-320 (1529)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 96.6¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$164.99	71% 7162-2905 (10067)
probability	Noavg 95.9¢	$6.4K	$1.9K	+$38	41% 1517-2139 (3656)
balthazar	Noavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$1.54	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
ImJustKen	Noavg 97.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$60.25	53% 3116-2807 (5923)
GollumGekko	Noavg 96.4¢	$20.5K	$559.13	-$660.77	68% 2104-988 (3092)
Porx	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.2K	$494.5	+$8.75	66% 1496-778 (2274)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.37	$365.64	+$56.14	43% 1451-1935 (3386)
TU tugatorCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$292.95	$318.75	+$25.8	85% 2885-490 (3375)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.4¢	$611.13	$100.82	+$0.94	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Noavg 94.1¢	$227.2	$39.13	+$8.89	51% 542-528 (1070)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$29.2K	$37.58	+$11.02	56% 15883-12633 (28516)
RE rebotsliafCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$14.65	$26.32	+$11.67	25% 190-577 (767)
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$99.99	$24.44	-$78.88	77% 1472-428 (1900)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$23.22	+$9.72	26% 352-985 (1337)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$7.88	$7.88	+$1.21	50% 138-140 (278)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.97	$6.6	+$1.63	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$5.1	$5.16	+$0.06	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$3.18	$3.18	+$0.63	6% 14-231 (245)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yes	$1.53	$1.53	+$0.24	44% 2206-2850 (5056)
DebosnysCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$188.75	$0.48	+$2.73	89% 1881-227 (2108)

boyau

Invested

$110,000

Value

$110.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

230-296 (526)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$181,776.82

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$803.55

Record

59%

999-703 (1702)

wish-CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,000

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

79%

1209-320 (1529)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$7,098.48

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$164.99

Record

71%

7162-2905 (10067)

probability

Invested

$6,388.87

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$38

Record

41%

1517-2139 (3656)

balthazar

Invested

$1,385.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1.54

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,222.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$60.25

Record

53%

3116-2807 (5923)

GollumGekko

Invested

$20,535.58

Value

$559.13

PnL

-$660.77

Record

68%

2104-988 (3092)

Porx

Invested

$1,211

Value

$494.5

PnL

+$8.75

Record

66%

1496-778 (2274)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.37

Value

$365.64

PnL

+$56.14

Record

43%

1451-1935 (3386)

tugatorCTR

Yes

Invested

$292.95

Value

$318.75

PnL

+$25.8

Record

85%

2885-490 (3375)

ghorrock

Invested

$611.13

Value

$100.82

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Invested

$227.2

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$8.89

Record

51%

542-528 (1070)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$29,210.2

Value

$37.58

PnL

+$11.02

Record

56%

15883-12633 (28516)

rebotsliafCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.65

Value

$26.32

PnL

+$11.67

Record

25%

190-577 (767)

QMG-CORECTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.99

Value

$24.44

PnL

-$78.88

Record

77%

1472-428 (1900)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$23.22

PnL

+$9.72

Record

26%

352-985 (1337)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.88

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

138-140 (278)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$1.63

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.63

Record

14-231 (245)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.24

Record

44%

2206-2850 (5056)

DebosnysCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.75

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$2.73

Record

89%

1881-227 (2108)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 23 top traders (48%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4958h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

65 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

48% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.