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C4
Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 100% (11–0, n=11) · PM monthly #451 · holds 8 consensus positions
0xc46661a5...e8c4b5cfPolymarket
🔄Contrarian🎯Sharp
Consensus PnL
$44.2K
Record
11W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#14
Source
PM monthly #451
Trades
13
Markets
16
Volume
$145.5K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Celtics vs. MagicCeltics $7.0K · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (58% of 41)
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Raptors $4.8K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Lakers)
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Chiefs $4.7K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots $4.5K · now 46¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Dolphins)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $4.4K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Commanders $2.0K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?No $309 · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $3 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 48¢- NBA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +52%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 100%(won 100% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.