Spread: Patriots (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (36%) · Dolphins at 55¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 1

Patriots46¢Dolphins54¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.1K

Combined PnL

$356.84

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots46%

Dolphins55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins4 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares37,909

Combined PnL-$81.93

Patriots7 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares36,173

Combined PnL+$438.77

Dolphins — 36%Patriots — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPatriots 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$100	40% 94-142 (236)
HO HomeRunHazard	Dolphinsavg 53¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$53.8	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
HI hi774cCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$54.35	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$30.99	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
TKD44CTR	Patriotsavg 44¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$148.42	48% 156-166 (322)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Patriotsavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$200.71	53% 453-396 (849)
UP UpTheBlues	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$23.8	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24.74	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
BA Bagwell306	Dolphinsavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.94	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Patriotsavg 45¢	$679.7	$687.05	+$7.35	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
SL slimjoeCTR	Patriotsavg 43¢	$420.11	$449.42	+$34.2	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$123.53	$123.9	+$0.38	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$62.64	$62.06	-$0.58
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 45.8¢	$60.89	$61.85	+$0.96

EdZachary

Dolphins

Invested

$10,800

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$100

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

HomeRunHazard

Dolphins

Invested

$5,702.85

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$53.8

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

hi774cCTR

Patriots

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$54.35

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

HerdoniaCTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,850.95

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$30.99

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

TKD44CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,611.88

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$148.42

Record

48%

156-166 (322)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,465.81

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$200.71

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

UpTheBlues

Dolphins

Invested

$2,570.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$23.8

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LuckyLooCTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,276.31

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24.74

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Bagwell306

Dolphins

Invested

$1,313.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.94

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

BoomLaLaCTR

Patriots

Invested

$679.7

Value

$687.05

PnL

+$7.35

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

slimjoeCTR

Patriots

Invested

$420.11

Value

$449.42

PnL

+$34.2

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$123.53

Value

$123.9

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Dolphins$62.6454¢-$0.58

Patriots$60.8945.8¢+$0.96

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPatriots 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.