Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 99.1¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares33,086

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$290.51

Total Shares30,434

Combined PnL-$455.82

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 91.2¢	$14.4K	$16.1K	+$1.7K	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
justdance	Noavg 80.5¢	$6.3K	$6.6K	+$365.29	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 96.3¢	$8.5K	$5.9K	-$499.16	54% 785-659 (1444)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 87.6¢	$3.5K	$2.9K	+$257.68	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
MA Marioy	Noavg 90¢	$895.07	$984.69	+$93.1	81% 250-58 (308)
19 196874353278CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$241.88	$222.09	-$19.79	45% 212-263 (475)
Facaie<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$99.3	$99	-$0.3	93% 1312-105 (1417)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$96.26	$99	+$3	86% 2156-340 (2496)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$79.15	$27.84	-$21.73	49% 274-288 (562)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$302.19	$27.68	-$278.65	9% 48-465 (513)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$148.56	$12.9	-$135.66	62% 795-490 (1285)
PippiTrader<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$2.58	$3.47	+$0.89	61% 313-200 (513)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$14,409.57

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

justdance

Invested

$6,280.05

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$365.29

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$8,478.19

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$499.16

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

0xDB5

Invested

$3,454.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$257.68

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

Marioy

Invested

$895.07

Value

$984.69

PnL

+$93.1

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

196874353278CTR

Yes

Invested

$241.88

Value

$222.09

PnL

-$19.79

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

Facaie<$100

Invested

$99.3

Value

$99

PnL

-$0.3

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$96.26

Value

$99

PnL

+$3

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.15

Value

$27.84

PnL

-$21.73

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$302.19

Value

$27.68

PnL

-$278.65

Record

48-465 (513)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.56

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$135.66

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

PippiTrader<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.89

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.