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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market43% (87–114, n=201)45% (549–663, n=1212)65% (876–462, n=1338)
Consensus PnL—$26K$11.2M$4.2M
Tracked as—was PM monthly #981PM monthly #2PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus position67% (26 of 39 open)79% (19 of 24 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Esports −15 pts, n=44—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won—42% of 181 at avg 45¢, ROI +6%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢—24% (won 9% of 44)10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢—33% (won 32% of 60)36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢—27% (won 60% of 48)35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up—16% (won 83% of 29)19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.