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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Record (consensus markets)75% (6–2, n=8)71% (23179–9576, n=32755)45% (547–663, n=1210)53% (10–9, n=19)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$164K$11.0M$5.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #19was PM monthly #94PM monthly #1PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position87% (77 of 89 open)68% (77 of 114 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • Esports +3 pts n=28, ROI +2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=28, ROI −6%
  • NFL +3 pts n=11, ROI −2%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Weather −2 pts, n=541——
Settled positions, side won86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%59% of 2880 at avg 60¢, ROI +1%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢0%35% (won 2% of 1006)10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢0%4% (won 45% of 112)36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢100% (won 86% of 7)5% (won 65% of 156)35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up0%56% (won 96% of 1606)19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.