Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465keeptheblueflagflyinghighojgSineNooneEI
Record (consensus markets)47% (62–70, n=132)45% (196–244, n=440)89% (59–7, n=66)43% (3–4, n=7)
Consensus PnL-$493K$6.7K$7.4K$124K
Tracked asPM monthly #11PM monthly #46PM monthly #589PM monthly #105
Sides with the consensus17% (1 of 6 open)77% (10 of 13 open)67% (2 of 3 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +42 pts n=29, ROI +39%
  • Tennis +37 pts n=16, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 67 at avg 60¢, ROI +35%100% of 134 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%92% of 49 at avg 77¢, ROI +1%100% of 4 at avg 51¢, ROI +50%
Entries under 30¢1% (won 0% of 1)5% (won 100% of 7)6% (won 0% of 3)0%
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 94% of 17)38% (won 100% of 51)8% (won 75% of 4)50% (won 100% of 2)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 100% of 33)50% (won 100% of 67)14% (won 100% of 7)50% (won 100% of 2)
Entries 70¢ and up24% (won 100% of 16)7% (won 100% of 9)71% (won 100% of 35)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465keeptheblueflagflyinghighojgSineNooneEI
Monastir: Kilian Feldbausch vs Tiago Pereira
opposite sides · consensus Tiago Pereira
Kilian Feldbausch $78KTiago Pereira $5.1KKilian Feldbausch $108—
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Magic $58K——Jazz $29K
Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Daniel Altmaier
opposite sides · consensus Buvaysar Gadamauri
—Daniel Altmaier $5.9KBuvaysar Gadamauri $229—