Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kilian Feldbausch, while the market favors Tiago Pereira (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Monastir: Kilian Feldbausch vs Tiago Pereira

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (80%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Kilian Feldbausch44¢Tiago Pereira56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$57.92

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 43.5¢

-25% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Tiago Pereira 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch44%

Tiago Pereira56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch8 traders

Total Value$804.45

Total Shares1,424

Combined PnL-$57.7

Tiago Pereira2 traders

Total Value$19.9

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$0.22

Kilian Feldbausch — 80%Tiago Pereira — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 71.8¢	$330.61	$299.02	-$31.6	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 71.8¢	$278.26	$199.59	-$78.67
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 25.5¢	$52.35	$99.43	+$47.07
0xheavy888CTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 70¢	$233.33	$235	+$1.67	55% 198-165 (363)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47¢	$150.28	$175.1	+$24.82	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47¢	$136.41	$136.41	-$0
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 19¢	$13.87	$38.69	+$24.82
machinelearnedCTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 55¢	$140.91	$151.55	+$10.63	39% 480-748 (1228)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 46.3¢	$123.32	$110.65	-$12.67	43% 109-146 (255)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 51¢	$99.45	$100.43	+$0.97	53% 1788-1590 (3378)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 73¢	$94.76	$68.04	-$24.27	23% 112-368 (480)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 44.1¢	$55.15	$51.88	-$3.28	22% 116-403 (519)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 72¢	$87.14	$50.23	-$36.91	31% 373-839 (1212)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47.7¢	$30.54	$36.69	+$6.14	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 29¢	$10.68	$10.86	+$0.18	48% 654-705 (1359)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 59¢	$9.44	$9.04	-$0.4	21% 132-485 (617)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$330.61

Value

$299.02

PnL

-$31.6

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$278.2671.8¢-$78.67

Tiago Pereira$52.3525.5¢+$47.07

0xheavy888CTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$233.33

Value

$235

PnL

+$1.67

Record

55%

198-165 (363)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$150.28

Value

$175.1

PnL

+$24.82

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$136.4147¢-$0

Tiago Pereira$13.8719¢+$24.82

machinelearnedCTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$140.91

Value

$151.55

PnL

+$10.63

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

thirdt1meCTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$123.32

Value

$110.65

PnL

-$12.67

Record

43%

109-146 (255)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$99.45

Value

$100.43

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

1788-1590 (3378)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$94.76

Value

$68.04

PnL

-$24.27

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

babybellsCTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$55.15

Value

$51.88

PnL

-$3.28

Record

22%

116-403 (519)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$87.14

Value

$50.23

PnL

-$36.91

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$30.54

Value

$36.69

PnL

+$6.14

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

Pan9X<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$10.68

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$9.44

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.4

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Tiago Pereira 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.