Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
LinaBell🦊RN1BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Record (consensus markets)12% (246–1847, n=2093)47% (13860–15343, n=29203)45% (542–652, n=1194)50% (10–10, n=20)
Consensus PnL$51K$13.4M$10.6M$5.3M
Tracked asHand-pickedPM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensus86% (6 of 7 open)83% (5 of 6 open)90% (146 of 163 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicPolitics −4 pts, n=11———
Settled positions, side won15% of 2378 at avg 14¢, ROI +2%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢87% (won 2% of 2062)10% (won 57% of 2537)10% (won 82% of 56)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢1% (won 96% of 23)22% (won 94% of 5518)36% (won 98% of 198)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢1% (won 100% of 25)36% (won 99% of 8928)35% (won 99% of 191)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up11% (won 99% of 268)32% (won 100% of 7821)19% (won 100% of 107)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.