Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
AnonymousUsername00gringo00beachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)72% (4258–1677, n=5935)75% (6–2, n=8)68% (43–20, n=63)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$459K$3.5M$5.8M$19.0M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #967was PM monthly #19was PM monthly #24was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus66% (103 of 157 open)no open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topic——NBA −6 pts, n=93College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won98% of 5348 at avg 56¢, ROI +7%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 74% of 291)0%3% (won 17% of 6)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢37% (won 100% of 1986)0%30% (won 57% of 63)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢34% (won 100% of 1832)100% (won 86% of 7)54% (won 51% of 115)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up23% (won 100% of 1239)0%14% (won 86% of 29)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAnonymousUsername00gringo00beachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $784—Yes $4.2K—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3.1K—Yes $65—