Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 28 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

28 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 38¢ · $709K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$709.0K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 38.4¢

-13% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 38%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 36 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes28 traders

Total Value$105.9K

Total Shares277,595

Combined PnL+$2.9K

No8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,961

Combined PnL+$316.53

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

305 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 79% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$600.0K	$600.0K	+$0	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$300.0K	$369.9K	+$69.9K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$300.0K	$230.1K	$-69.9K
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$24.4K	$25.0K	+$627.65	39% 196-304 (500)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 48.2¢	$20.5K	$20.6K	+$23.4	57% 766-585 (1351)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$10.7K	$9.2K	$-1.6K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 42.4¢	$7.5K	$7.3K	-$239.72	26% 351-985 (1336)
2B9SCTR	Yes	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$6.8K	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$6.3K	$5.7K	-$622.95	56% 973-769 (1742)
siickCTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$27.52	57% 767-580 (1347)
VI VilgefortzCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$826.2K	$5.0K	-$82.49	71% 196-82 (278)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$318.01	48% 400-434 (834)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$4.1K	$3.8K	-$295	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$1.2K	$3.3K	+$291.72	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$787.23	68% 2074-957 (3031)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$316.28	72% 1257-483 (1740)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 49.7¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$440.14	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$48.26	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
RD rdba	Noavg 50¢	$952.04	$1.2K	+$222.57	60% 131-88 (219)
yen4uCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$229.49	86% 807-136 (943)
Kickstand7ARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$618.82	$618.82	-$0	61% 496-318 (814)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$309.41	$381.5	+$72.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$309.41	$237.32	-$72.09
CO cocococococo	Noavg 59.6¢	$521.63	$505.45	+$11.86	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$472.47	$470.62	-$1.85	38% 20-32 (52)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$453.01	$457.22	+$4.2	37% 566-944 (1510)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 60.3¢	$441.52	$446.89	+$5.38	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$543.92	$414.88	-$129.03	60% 406-274 (680)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$48.58	$308.05	+$1.22	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

NooseracARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$600,000

Value

$600.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Both legs:

No$300,00050¢+$69.9K

Yes$300,00050¢$-69.9K

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$24,406.55

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$627.65

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$20,528.84

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$23.4

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,737.94

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,493.43

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$239.72

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,902.17

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,337.95

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$622.95

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,925.48

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$27.52

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

VilgefortzCTR

Yes

Invested

$826,178.01

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$82.49

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,396.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$318.01

Record

48%

400-434 (834)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,105

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$295

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,202.59

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$291.72

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,217.6

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$787.23

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,849.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$316.28

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,873.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$440.14

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,285.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$48.26

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

rdba

Invested

$952.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$222.57

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

yen4uCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,379.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$229.49

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

Kickstand7ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$618.82

Value

$618.82

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

Both legs:

No$309.4150¢+$72.09

Yes$309.4150¢-$72.09

cocococococo

Invested

$521.63

Value

$505.45

PnL

+$11.86

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$472.47

Value

$470.62

PnL

-$1.85

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$453.01

Value

$457.22

PnL

+$4.2

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$441.52

Value

$446.89

PnL

+$5.38

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$543.92

Value

$414.88

PnL

-$129.03

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$48.58

Value

$308.05

PnL

+$1.22

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 38%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 36 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

305 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 79% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.3%

38.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.