Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HoshinoAIjoseph00677ndb1weflyhigh
Record (consensus markets)0% (0–5, n=5)43% (10–13, n=23)64% (1102–633, n=1735)52% (414–381, n=795)
Consensus PnL-$1.8K$3.2M$4.6M$2.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #382PM monthly #7PM monthly #109Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus43% (47 of 109 open)no open consensus position73% (72 of 98 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Soccer +19 pts n=32, ROI +31%
  • NHL +3 pts n=601, ROI +3%
  • NBA +11 pts n=45, ROI +13%
Weakest topic——NFL −8 pts, n=147Entertainment −21 pts, n=12
Settled positions, side won—59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%55% of 745 at avg 51¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢—12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 14% of 187)3% (won 27% of 26)
Entries 30–50¢—6% (won 0% of 1)19% (won 39% of 269)41% (won 50% of 302)
Entries 50–70¢—65% (won 73% of 11)23% (won 57% of 328)51% (won 58% of 380)
Entries 70¢ and up—18% (won 67% of 3)44% (won 94% of 622)5% (won 89% of 37)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHoshinoAIjoseph00677ndb1weflyhigh
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $16—Yes $50—