Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 77¢ · $882 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$881.66

Combined PnL

-$0.57

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 76.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$389.09

Total Shares506

Combined PnL+$18.33

Yes4 traders

Total Value$192.96

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$18.9

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$308.59	$299.61	-$6.11	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$211.84	$230.7	+$18.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.3¢	$93.86	$68.91	-$24.98
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 70.8¢	$188.5	$204.89	+$16.39	51% 257-247 (504)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75¢	$95.25	$97.79	+$2.54	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 77¢	$65.45	$65.03	-$0.42	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$76.5	$57.5	-$19	51% 97-95 (192)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$52.74	$53.89	+$1.15	66% 938-493 (1431)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$93.09	$49.21	-$1.74	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$31.67	$32.36	+$0.69	56% 15849-12543 (28392)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$19.92	$19.61	-$0.31	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.63	$1.77	+$0.14	50% 657-658 (1315)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$308.59

Value

$299.61

PnL

-$6.11

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$211.8470.7¢+$18.87

Yes$93.8631.3¢-$24.98

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$188.5

Value

$204.89

PnL

+$16.39

Record

51%

257-247 (504)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$95.25

Value

$97.79

PnL

+$2.54

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

merod<$100

Invested

$65.45

Value

$65.03

PnL

-$0.42

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.5

Value

$57.5

PnL

-$19

Record

51%

97-95 (192)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.74

Value

$53.89

PnL

+$1.15

Record

66%

938-493 (1431)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.09

Value

$49.21

PnL

-$1.74

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.67

Value

$32.36

PnL

+$0.69

Record

56%

15849-12543 (28392)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.61

PnL

-$0.31

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

657-658 (1315)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.