Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Kch-TempsainttroplayRN100gringo00
Record (consensus markets)53% (251–222, n=473)71% (10–4, n=14)47% (13868–15346, n=29214)75% (6–2, n=8)
Consensus PnL$2.1M$4.4M$13.4M$3.5M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #123was PM monthly #11PM monthly #24 + pinnedwas PM monthly #19
Sides with the consensus80% (4 of 5 open)no open consensus position88% (14 of 16 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won95% of 264 at avg 54¢, ROI +31%100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%
Entries under 30¢2% (won 100% of 6)0%10% (won 57% of 2537)0%
Entries 30–50¢31% (won 90% of 83)50% (won 100% of 5)22% (won 94% of 5518)0%
Entries 50–70¢57% (won 96% of 150)50% (won 100% of 5)36% (won 99% of 8928)100% (won 86% of 7)
Entries 70¢ and up9% (won 100% of 25)0%32% (won 100% of 7821)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketKch-TempsainttroplayRN100gringo00
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone
opposite sides · consensus Luca Van Assche
Luca Van Assche $2.7K—Mariano Navone $996—