Consensus PnL $2.1M · win rate 53% (246–214, n=460) · was PM monthly #123 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.1M
Record
246W / 214L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 460 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1566
Source
PM monthly #123
Trades
260
Markets
469
Volume
$25.1M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?No $72K · now 69¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (35% of 21)
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Eagles $44K · now 54¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under $19K · now 63¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Over)
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under $7.3K · now 48¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (39% of 20)
- Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01?Yes $724 · now 89¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
Specialties
259 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 54¢- NFL
+51 pts
side won 100% of 43 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +51%
- College Football
+47 pts
side won 100% of 39 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 91% of 143 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 90% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 96% of 147)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 100% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.