Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mariano Navone, while the market favors Luca Van Assche (60%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Mariano Navone (50%) · Mariano Navone at 41¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 9

Luca Van Assche60¢Mariano Navone40¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mariano Navone

Consensus Traders

Mariano Navone 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

-$349.32

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 40.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMariano Navone at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mariano Navone

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Luca Van Assche 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche60%

Mariano Navone41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mariano Navone7 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares34,418

Combined PnL-$375.33

Luca Van Assche7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,294

Combined PnL+$26.01

Mariano Navone — 50%Luca Van Assche — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 41.9¢	$8.9K	$8.6K	-$296.92	50% 4083-4020 (8103)
OM omnibus-076daa	Luca Van Asscheavg 57¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$21.02	50% 19810-20152 (39962)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 43¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$23.26	54% 745-625 (1370)
KC Kch-Temp	Luca Van Asscheavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.4	50% 225-221 (446)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Mariano Navoneavg 40.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$11.83	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
K5 k56CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 40¢	$850	$913.75	+$10.63	57% 890-659 (1549)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 41¢	$2.4K	$622.5	-$52.5	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
SE sentrioCTR	Mariano Navoneavg 41.5¢	$409.36	$409.3	-$0.06	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Mariano Navoneavg 41.7¢	$373.84	$372.45	-$1.39	61% 13840-8746 (22586)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 41.4¢	$372.11	$284.06	+$121.8	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 41.4¢	$167.52	$164.03	-$3.5
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 57¢	$114.94	$120.03	+$125.3
IW iWasEnough	Luca Van Asscheavg 57.2¢	$141.75	$142.51	+$0.76	53% 8060-7271 (15331)
0xheavy888	Luca Van Asscheavg 59.5¢	$114.78	$109.94	-$5.8	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
MA manoamano<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 60¢	$49.09	$48.68	-$0.41	51% 525-503 (1028)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 58.8¢	$46.44	$45.04	-$1.8	65% 1808-987 (2795)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 58.5¢	$5.85	$5.7	-$0.15	52% 7634-6911 (14545)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$8,880.49

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$296.92

Record

50%

4083-4020 (8103)

omnibus-076daa

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$2,395.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$21.02

Record

50%

19810-20152 (39962)

pltrkr111CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$23.26

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

Kch-Temp

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,462.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.4

Record

50%

225-221 (446)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$1,252.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.83

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

k56CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$850

Value

$913.75

PnL

+$10.63

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$2,415

Value

$622.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

sentrioCTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$409.36

Value

$409.3

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

LilybaeumCTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$373.84

Value

$372.45

PnL

-$1.39

Record

61%

13840-8746 (22586)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$372.11

Value

$284.06

PnL

+$121.8

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

Both legs:

Mariano Navone$167.5241.4¢-$3.5

Luca Van Assche$114.9457¢+$125.3

iWasEnough

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$141.75

Value

$142.51

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

8060-7271 (15331)

0xheavy888

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$114.78

Value

$109.94

PnL

-$5.8

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

manoamano<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$49.09

Value

$48.68

PnL

-$0.41

Record

51%

525-503 (1028)

darkumbreon88<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$46.44

Value

$45.04

PnL

-$1.8

Record

65%

1808-987 (2795)

ameisgoat11<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

Research grade

NeutralMariano Navone at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mariano Navone

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Luca Van Assche 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mariano Navone wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.