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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| LesterDiamond | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 56% (3256–2591, n=5847) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $148K | $14.8M | -$6.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #713 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (15 of 20 open) | 63% (17 of 27 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −3 pts, n=392 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 65% of 3649 at avg 65¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 26% (won 2% of 940) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 48% of 265) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 61% of 383) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 56% (won 97% of 2061) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | LesterDiamond | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? same side · consensus No | No $34 | — | — | No $42 |